{"id":4957,"date":"2015-02-19T01:18:09","date_gmt":"2015-02-19T01:18:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/revistakuvendi.org\/?p=4957"},"modified":"2015-02-19T01:18:09","modified_gmt":"2015-02-19T01:18:09","slug":"sindromi-i-luftes-se-pare-boterore-dhe-lufta-aktuale-midis-rusise-dhe-ukraines","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/revistakuvendi.org\/?p=4957","title":{"rendered":"SINDROMI I LUFT\u00cbS S\u00cb PAR\u00cb BOT\u00cbRORE DHE LUFTA AKTUALE MIDIS RUSIS\u00cb DHE UKRAIN\u00cbS**"},"content":{"rendered":"

*Dr. Islam Lauka<\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Aneksimi i Krimes\u00eb nga Rusia, n\u00eb mars t\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti dhe mb\u00ebshtetja prej saj e forcave separatiste ukrainase n\u00eb Donjeck dhe Llugansk, b\u00ebri q\u00eb shum\u00eb historian\u00eb, analist\u00eb, studiues e politolog\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrs\u00ebrisin pyetjen e shtruar para gjasht\u00eb vjet\u00ebsh, kur n\u00eb gusht 2008, Rusia nd\u00ebrhyri ushtarakisht n\u00eb Gjeorgji, duke shk\u00ebputur prej saj dy krahina, Abhazin\u00eb dhe Osetin\u00eb e Jugut, t\u00eb njohura nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtarisht edhe nga vet\u00eb Rusia, si pjes\u00eb e territorit gjeorgjian. Pyetja e at\u00ebhershme ishte kjo: Kush e ka radh\u00ebn pas Gjeorgjis\u00eb? P\u00ebrgjigja e nj\u00eb pjese t\u00eb mir\u00eb t\u00eb ekspertiz\u00ebs politike e shkencore t\u00eb asaj kohe, fatkeq\u00ebsisht, rezultoi t\u00eb jet\u00eb e sakt\u00eb-radh\u00ebn do ta kishte\u00a0\u00a0Ukraina.<\/p>\n

E nj\u00ebjta pyetje shtrohet edhe sot: Kush e ka radh\u00ebn pas Ukrain\u00ebs? Shtetet balltike, Lituani, Letoni, Estoni? Aq m\u00eb tep\u00ebr q\u00eb\u00a0\u00a0k\u00ebto dy t\u00eb fundit kan\u00eb komunitete t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme rus\u00ebsh etnik\u00eb e rusishtfol\u00ebs. Apo Moldavia, shteti i brisht\u00eb, ku si pasoj\u00eb e nd\u00ebrhyrjes s\u00eb Armat\u00ebs s\u00eb 14 ruse, n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb viteve `90, sot e k\u00ebsaj dite, ekziston konflikti \u201ci ngrir\u00eb\u201d i Transdnistrias, krahin\u00ebs q\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb vit i k\u00ebrkoi zyrtarisht Mosk\u00ebs p\u00ebrfshirjen n\u00eb Federat\u00ebn Ruse? Sipas analistit Pavel Sheremet, Putin do t\u00eb p\u00ebrpiqet t\u00eb dal\u00eb n\u00eb Moldavi dhe krahin\u00ebn e saj, Transdnistria p\u00ebr t`u nd\u00ebrfutur n\u00eb trupin e Europ\u00ebs Q\u00ebndrore dhe Lindore, duke e futur n\u00eb rreth Ukrain\u00ebn dhe duke e v\u00ebn\u00eb plot\u00ebsisht n\u00ebn kontroll Detin e zi.1<\/sup>\u00a0T\u00eb gjitha shtetet e lartp\u00ebrmendura kan\u00eb qen\u00eb pjes\u00eb e BS, deri n\u00eb shp\u00ebrb\u00ebrjen e tij, n\u00eb vitin 1991.<\/p>\n

T\u00eb tjer\u00eb analist\u00eb e studiues shkojn\u00eb edhe m\u00eb tej, duke mos p\u00ebrjashtuar nga lista e zez\u00eb e Putinit as Polonin\u00eb, dikur pjes\u00eb e Perandoris\u00eb Ruse.<\/p>\n

Pyetje t\u00eb tilla jan\u00eb shprehje e shqet\u00ebsimit t\u00eb thell\u00eb t\u00eb bot\u00ebs akademike, shkencore e politike\u00a0\u00a0q\u00eb shkaktoi aneksimi i Krimes\u00eb, akt, i cili p\u00ebrb\u00ebn \u201crastin e par\u00eb t\u00eb pushtimit territorial n\u00eb Europ\u00eb, q\u00eb nga koha e Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Dyt\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore.2<\/sup>\u00a0Ky shqet\u00ebsim ka t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb edhe me n\u00ebp\u00ebrk\u00ebmbjen e hapur t\u00eb s\u00eb drejt\u00ebs nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare nga Moska , si dhe natyr\u00ebn, historikisht, ekspansioniste t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb, q\u00eb, p\u00ebr hir t\u00eb interesave t\u00eb saj si fuqi e madhe, nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb ndalur dhe nuk ndalet as para aventurave ushtarake t\u00eb tipit t\u00eb Gjeorgjis\u00eb\u00a0\u00a02008 dhe Ukrain\u00ebs 2014.<\/p>\n

Meqen\u00ebse lufta Rusi \u2013Ukrain\u00eb p\u00ebrkoi me sh\u00ebnimin e 100- vjetorit t\u00eb Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Par\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore, shum\u00eb studiues k\u00ebrkuan dhe gjet\u00ebn paralele dometh\u00ebn\u00ebse midis tyre, pavar\u00ebsisht se i ndan nj\u00eb shekull i t\u00ebr\u00eb. Sipas Bashk\u00ebdrejtorit t\u00eb Institutit t\u00eb Analiz\u00ebs s\u00eb Siguris\u00eb Globale n\u00eb Uashington, Gal Llaft \u201ckuptimi i llogarive strategjike\u201d3<\/sup>\u00a0q\u00eb b\u00ebnte Rusia n\u00eb prag t\u00eb Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Par\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore na ndihmon t\u00eb deshifrojm\u00eb kodin e sjelljes s\u00eb sotme t\u00eb Mosk\u00ebs n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb Manifestin e Carit, Nikollaj i II, t\u00eb dat\u00ebs 20 korrik 1914, thuhet: \u201cDuke ndjekur amanetin e vet historik, Rusia, nj\u00eb dhe e pandar\u00eb me popujt sllav\u00eb n\u00eb besim dhe gjak, kurr\u00eb nuk ka qen\u00eb indiferente ndaj fatit t\u00eb tyre. K\u00ebto dit\u00eb, kur Austro-Hungaria i paraqiti Serbis\u00eb k\u00ebrkesa krejt\u00ebsisht t\u00eb papranueshme p\u00ebr nj\u00eb shtet, n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb unike dhe me nj\u00eb forc\u00eb t\u00eb ve\u00e7ant\u00eb, shp\u00ebrthyen ndjenjat v\u00ebllaz\u00ebrore t\u00eb popullit rus ndaj sllav\u00ebve\u2026\u201d4<\/sup><\/p>\n

Po t\u00eb merret i shk\u00ebputur ky fragment, mund t\u00eb biesh leht\u00eb pre e stereotipit, sipas t\u00eb cilit, Rusia u p\u00ebrfshi n\u00eb Luft\u00ebn e Par\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore, jo p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb interesave t\u00eb veta perandorake, t\u00eb cilat ajo i perceptonte si jetike, por p\u00ebr hir t\u00eb aleates s\u00eb saj ballkanike, Serbis\u00eb.\u00a05<\/sup><\/p>\n

Kjo tez\u00eb, natyrisht, mb\u00ebshtet\u00ebsit e saj kryesor\u00eb i ka t\u00eb p\u00ebrq\u00ebndruar n\u00eb Mosk\u00eb dhe n\u00eb Beograd, por nuk mungojn\u00eb as n\u00eb Per\u00ebndim.6<\/sup>\u00a0Midis tyre \u00ebsht\u00eb edhe ish Sekretari Amerikan i Shtetit, Henri Kisingeri, i cili, duke iu referuar lidhjeve ruso-serbe dhe mbrojtjes s\u00eb Serbis\u00eb nga Rusia, arrin n\u00eb p\u00ebrfundimin se \u201cKombet e Europ\u00ebs i lejuan vetes t\u00eb b\u00ebheshin pengje t\u00eb klient\u00ebve t\u00eb tyre kok\u00ebkrisur ballkanik\u00eb, n\u00eb vend q\u00eb t`i frenonin ata\u201d.7<\/sup>\u00a0P\u00ebr hir t\u00eb s\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00ebs, duhet th\u00ebn\u00eb se n\u00eb librin e tij \u201cDiplomacia\u201d, Kisingeri, si nj\u00eb nga p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsuesit m\u00eb t\u00eb shquar t\u00eb shkoll\u00ebs realiste, sjell fakte dhe argumente qe rr\u00ebzojn\u00eb tez\u00ebn, sipas s\u00eb cil\u00ebs, fuqit\u00eb e m\u00ebdha t\u00eb asaj kohe, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb Rusin\u00eb, u t\u00ebrhoq\u00ebn n\u00eb konflikt nga klientela ballkanike, n\u00eb kund\u00ebrshtim me vullnetin e tyre.8<\/sup>\u00a0\u00a0Faktet d\u00ebshmojn\u00eb se Rusia hyri n\u00eb Luft\u00ebn e Par\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore p\u00ebr interesat dhe egon e saj si fuqi e madhe. Jan\u00eb t\u00eb njohura rivalitetet historike t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb me fuqit\u00eb e tjera europiane p\u00ebr ndikim n\u00eb Ballkan, n\u00eb Europ\u00ebn Lindore, n\u00eb Azin\u00eb Q\u00ebndrore etj.<\/p>\n

Por n\u00eb prag t\u00eb Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Par\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore, si k\u00ebrc\u00ebnim kryesor, Perandoria Ruse shihte Gjermanin\u00eb. Kjo situat\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb fiksuar n\u00eb nj\u00eb informacion\u00a0\u00a0sekret t\u00eb Shtabit t\u00eb P\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm t\u00eb Flot\u00ebs Detare t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb, drejtuar Carit, Nikollai i ll, n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb vitit 1914 : \u201cPes\u00ebmb\u00ebdhjet\u00eb vitet e fundit, Gjermania \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekur me t\u00eb gjitha forcat p\u00ebr ta n\u00ebnshtruar Rusin\u00eb ekonomikisht dhe p\u00ebr ta dob\u00ebsuar at\u00eb politikisht dhe ushtarakisht\u2026Por rilindja e Rusis\u00eb, tashm\u00eb, ka filluar dhe po p\u00ebrparon me shpejt\u00ebsi. P\u00ebr pasoj\u00eb, n\u00eb Gjermani po shfaqet frika, lidhur me shtrirjen e m\u00ebtejshme t\u00eb ndikimit t\u00eb saj, prandaj gjerman\u00ebt po nxitojn\u00eb t\u00eb marrin masa\u201d.9<\/sup><\/p>\n

Por n\u00eb prag t\u00eb Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Par\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore, si k\u00ebrc\u00ebnim kryesor, Perandoria Ruse shihte Gjermanin\u00eb. Kjo situat\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb fiksuar n\u00eb nj\u00eb informacion\u00a0\u00a0sekret t\u00eb Shtabit t\u00eb P\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm t\u00eb Flot\u00ebs Detare t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb, drejtuar Carit, Nikollai i ll, n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb vitit 1914 : \u201cPes\u00ebmb\u00ebdhjet\u00eb vitet e fundit, Gjermania \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekur me t\u00eb gjitha forcat p\u00ebr ta n\u00ebnshtruar Rusin\u00eb ekonomikisht dhe p\u00ebr ta dob\u00ebsuar at\u00eb politikisht dhe ushtarakisht\u2026Por rilindja e Rusis\u00eb, tashm\u00eb, ka filluar dhe po p\u00ebrparon me shpejt\u00ebsi. P\u00ebr pasoj\u00eb, n\u00eb Gjermani po shfaqet frika, lidhur me shtrirjen e m\u00ebtejshme t\u00eb ndikimit t\u00eb saj, prandaj gjerman\u00ebt po nxitojn\u00eb t\u00eb marrin masa\u201d.9<\/sup>\u00a0\u00a0\u00cbsht\u00eb koha kur Berlini kishte shpallur synimin p\u00ebr nd\u00ebrtimin e nj\u00eb hekurudhe q\u00eb do ta lidhte me Bagdatin, n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet Stambollit. Pik\u00ebrisht n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb periudh\u00eb , nisin e forcohen marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet midis Gjermanis\u00eb dhe Perandoris\u00eb Osmane, sidomos n\u00eb fush\u00ebn ushtarake. Nj\u00eb mision ushtarak gjerman u vendos n\u00eb Stamboll p\u00ebr t\u00eb drejtuar st\u00ebrvitjen dhe modernizimin e ushtris\u00eb turke, n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb ve\u00e7ant\u00eb, Korpusin e saj t\u00eb Par\u00eb, q\u00eb kishte p\u00ebr detyr\u00eb mbrojtjen e kryeqytetit dhe t\u00eb Ngushticave . Perandori gjerman, Vilhelmi i II, shprehu besimin se flamujt\u00eb e vendit t\u00eb tij \u201cs\u00eb shpejti do t\u00eb val\u00ebviten mbi fortifikimet e Bosforit\u201d.10<\/sup>\u00a0N\u00eb takimin q\u00eb Nikollaj i II pati me ambasadorin britanik n\u00eb Sh\u00ebn Peterburg, deklaroi se n\u00eb nj\u00eb situat\u00eb t\u00eb till\u00eb, Rusia do ta kund\u00ebrshtonte me t\u00eb gjitha forcat Gjermanin\u00eb \u201cedhe sikur lufta t\u00eb ishte e vetmja alternativ\u00eb\u201d.11<\/sup>\u00a0Kjo luft\u00eb, sipas shefit t\u00eb administrat\u00ebs ushtarake t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb, Nikollaj Obrushev, \u201cdo t\u00eb ishte e p\u00ebrgjithshme, jo e lokalizuar\u201d.12\u00a0<\/sup>K\u00ebrc\u00ebnimin tjet\u00ebr ndaj interesave t\u00eb saj, Perandoria Ruse e shihte tek Austro-Hungaria. Viena konsiderohej nga Sh\u00ebn Pet\u00ebrburgu si nj\u00eb nd\u00ebr rival\u00ebt e tij m\u00eb t\u00eb eg\u00ebr n\u00eb Ballkan. N\u00eb qend\u00ebr t\u00eb politik\u00ebs ballkanike ruse, p\u00ebr rreth tre shekuj me rradh\u00eb, ka qen\u00eb frenimi i ekspansionit austriak n\u00eb drejtim t\u00eb Ballkanit, duke p\u00ebrdorur t\u00eb gjith\u00eb instrument\u00ebt q\u00eb kishte n\u00eb dispozicion, ushtrin\u00eb, diplomacin\u00eb, shpesh edhe popullsit\u00eb ortodokse t\u00eb k\u00ebtij rajoni duke i manipuluar dhe shfryt\u00ebzuar ato n\u00eb funksion t\u00eb interesave t\u00eb veta, p\u00ebr ta mbajtur Austro- Hungarin\u00eb sa m\u00eb larg Ballkanit. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb kontekst, duke filluar q\u00eb nga Lidhja e Prizrenit, por edhe para saj, Rusia nuk ka l\u00ebn\u00eb gur\u00eb pa l\u00ebvizur p\u00ebr cop\u00ebtimin e trojeve shqiptare dhe pengimin me \u00e7do mjet t\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekjeve p\u00ebr formimin e shtetit t\u00eb pavarur shqiptar, i cili shihej prej saj si nj\u00eb projekt, kryesisht , austro \u2013 hungarez. T\u00eb tre projektet\u00a013<\/sup>\u00a0e hartuar nga Sh\u00ebn Pet\u00ebrburgu, n\u00eb prag t\u00eb shpalljes s\u00eb pavar\u00ebsis\u00eb s\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb, e gjymtonin at\u00eb territorialisht, deri n\u00eb kufinjt\u00eb e nj\u00eb prefekture, midis Matit dhe Elbasanit, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb nj\u00eb gjymtim akoma m\u00eb i r\u00ebnd\u00eb i b\u00ebhej p\u00ebrmbajtjes s\u00eb tij: sipas projekteve ruse, ai do t\u00eb quhej \u201cshteti mysliman shqiptar\u201d.<\/p>\n

Rusia ishte nd\u00ebr fuqit\u00eb e para, krahas Britanis\u00eb s\u00eb Madhe, Franc\u00ebs dhe Italis\u00eb q\u00eb, n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Par\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore, n\u00eb vend q\u00eb t\u00eb mbronte pavar\u00ebsin\u00eb e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb si garantuese e saj, n\u00eb baz\u00eb t\u00eb vendimeve t\u00eb Konferenc\u00ebs s\u00eb Ambasador\u00ebve n\u00eb Lond\u00ebr,\u00a0\u00a0i shkeli ato me t\u00eb dyja k\u00ebmb\u00ebt, duke iu rikthyer, edhe nj\u00eb her\u00eb tjet\u00ebr, tez\u00ebs s\u00eb vet t\u00eb vjet\u00ebr p\u00ebr cop\u00ebtimin e trojeve Shqiptare. N\u00eb nj\u00eb takim me ambasadorin e Franc\u00ebs, Moris Paleologu\u00a014<\/sup>, Cari, Nikollaj i II\u00a015<\/sup>, i paraqiti atij pik\u00ebpamjen ruse, lidhur me Shqip\u00ebrin\u00eb londineze, edhe ashtu t\u00eb cunguar. Sipas tij, Serbia duhet t\u00eb marr\u00eb pjes\u00ebn veriore t\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb, Greqia, at\u00eb jugore, nd\u00ebrsa Vlora duhej t`i kalonte Italis\u00eb.\u00a016<\/sup><\/p>\n

Politik\u00ebn e mbajtjes larg t\u00eb Austro-Hungaris\u00eb n\u00eb Ballkan, Rusia e ka ndjekur edhe lidhur me Serbin\u00eb. Sipas llogarive t\u00eb Sh\u00ebn Peterburgut, me pushtimin e Serbis\u00eb, Vjena nuk do t\u00eb ndalej vet\u00ebm me kontrollin e Adriatikut, por mund t\u00eb dilte n\u00eb Egje, duke pretenduar edhe ajo kontrollin e Ngushticave. Rusia mund t\u00eb pajtohej me gjith\u00e7ka, por kurrsesi me marrjen n\u00ebn kontroll t\u00eb Ngushticave nga nj\u00eb fuqi e madhe si Gjermania, apo aleatja e saj, Austro-Hungaria. Kjo do t\u00eb thoshte asfiksi ekonomike p\u00ebr perandorin\u00eb cariste, pasi n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet Dardaneleve dhe Bosforit kryhej pjesa m\u00eb e madhe e eksport-importit rus. N\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn koh\u00eb, do t\u00eb shkaktonte asfiksi ushtarako-strategjike, sepse n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet tyre kalonin anijet luftarake ruse p\u00ebr mbrojtjen e interesave t\u00eb saj si fuqi e madhe n\u00eb Mesdhe dhe po n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet Ngushticave futeshin anijet luftarake t\u00eb kund\u00ebrshtar\u00ebve t\u00eb saj, gj\u00eb q\u00eb Rusia e kishte provuar, duke e p\u00ebsuar keqas, n\u00eb Luft\u00ebn e Krimes\u00eb, gjat\u00eb viteve 1854-1856.<\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb interes tjet\u00ebr q\u00eb e \u00e7oi Rusin\u00eb drejt p\u00ebrfshirjes n\u00eb Luft\u00ebn e Par\u00eb ishte ai i p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsimit t\u00eb imazhit. Pas posht\u00ebrimit nga Japonia, m\u00eb 1905 dhe nga Berlini e Vjena, m\u00eb 1908, duke e detyruar q\u00eb t\u00eb pranoj\u00eb aneksimin austro-hungarez t\u00eb Bosnj\u00ebs, pa marr\u00eb asgj\u00eb n\u00eb shk\u00ebmbim, Rusia d\u00ebshironte q\u00eb, n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet fitores q\u00eb ajo shpresonte ta arrinte n\u00eb Luft\u00ebn Bot\u00ebrore, t\u00eb rivendoste autoritetin dhe prestigjin e saj si fuqi e madhe e klasit t\u00eb par\u00eb.<\/p>\n

K\u00ebto ishin interesat themelore q\u00eb e shtyn\u00eb Peterburgun drejt Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Par\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore dhe jo sllavofilia apo serbofilia ruse, q\u00eb propagandohet nga historigrafia ruse dhe nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb e historiografis\u00eb serbe.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb manifestin e lartp\u00ebrmendur t\u00eb Carit, Nikollaj i II, nuk flitet hapur p\u00ebr k\u00ebto interesa, sepse ai ishte nj\u00eb dokument moralizues e propagandistik q\u00eb kishte p\u00ebr q\u00ebllim mobilizimin e perandoris\u00eb n\u00eb em\u00ebr, gjoja, t\u00eb solidaritetit me v\u00ebllez\u00ebrit serb\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00eb feje e t\u00eb nj\u00eb gjaku.<\/p>\n

Megjithat\u00eb, edhe n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb dokument ka nj\u00eb fjali ky\u00e7e q\u00eb shpreh thelbin e interesave ruse n\u00eb Luft\u00ebn e Par\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore, q\u00eb, si\u00e7 e formulon Cari, \u00ebsht\u00eb \u201cmbrojtja e pozit\u00ebs s\u00eb Rusis\u00eb si fuqi e madhe\u201d .17<\/sup>\u00a0K\u00ebtij q\u00ebllimi i jan\u00eb n\u00ebnshtruar \u201cserbofilia\u201d dhe \u201csolidariteti sllav\u201d apo pretendimet e Peterburgut p\u00ebr, gjoja, mbrojtjen e paqes e t\u00eb rendit nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar.<\/p>\n

Deshifrimi i kodit t\u00eb sjelljes s\u00eb sotme t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb putiniste, nisur nga \u201ckuptimi i llogarive t\u00eb saj strategjike\u201d, n\u00eb vitin 1914, do t\u00eb thot\u00eb q\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb sjellje ta shohim t\u00eb kusht\u00ebzuar nga interesat e saj aktuale si fuqi e madhe, ashtu si\u00e7 i percepton ajo.<\/p>\n

Sot, pas 100 vjet\u00ebsh, sipas\u00a0\u00a0Mosk\u00ebs, pozitat e Rusis\u00eb p\u00ebrs\u00ebri jan\u00eb t\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnuara .18<\/sup>\u00a0N\u00ebse at\u00ebhere problem themelor ishin Ngushticat dhe frika e kontrollit t\u00eb tyre nga Gjermania apo Austro-Hungaria, k\u00ebt\u00eb radh\u00eb, Presidentin Putin e ka kapur ankthi se mos, pas orientimit proper\u00ebndimor t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs, Krimea kthehet nga nj\u00eb baz\u00eb e fuqishme ushtarake ruse, n\u00eb baz\u00eb ushtarake amerikane ose t\u00eb NATO-s, duke e kthyer Detin e Zi n\u00eb nj\u00eb det t\u00eb rreziksh\u00ebm, armiq\u00ebsor p\u00ebr Rusin\u00eb. Q\u00ebllimi i aneksimit t\u00eb Krimes\u00eb, duket se ishte parandalimi i nj\u00eb zhvillimi t\u00eb till\u00eb, q\u00eb, n\u00eb gjykimin e Mosk\u00ebs, c\u00ebnonte interesat e saj jetike n\u00eb fush\u00ebn e siguris\u00eb. Por duke fituar Krimen\u00eb, Rusia humbi Ukrain\u00ebn.<\/p>\n

Me humbjen e saj, si republika m\u00eb e madhe dhe m\u00eb e pasur, pas Rusis\u00eb, n\u00eb ish-Bashkimin Sovjetik, merr fund edhe \u00ebnd\u00ebrra e Putinit p\u00ebr Bashkimin Euraziatik, si nj\u00eb pol i ve\u00e7ant\u00eb fuqie, n\u00eb bot\u00ebn shum\u00ebpol\u00ebshe. Nd\u00ebrhyrja n\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebn juglindore dhe mb\u00ebshtetja e forcave separatiste n\u00eb Donjeck dhe Llugansk, duket se ka si q\u00ebllim q\u00eb, n\u00eb pamund\u00ebsi t\u00eb kthimit t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs n\u00eb sfer\u00ebn e saj t\u00eb ndikimit, ta destabilizoj\u00eb at\u00eb dhe t\u00eb mos i jap\u00eb asnj\u00eb mund\u00ebsi q\u00eb t\u00eb integrohet n\u00eb strukturat e BE dhe NATO-s. Penges\u00eb kryesore p\u00ebr realizimin e ambicjeve si fuqi e madhe, Rusia e konsideron SHBA-n\u00eb, NATO-n dhe BE-n\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Duke vazhduar me deshifrimin e kodit t\u00eb sjelljes s\u00eb sotme t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb, mund t\u00eb pohohet se, ashtu si me 1914, edhe me 2014, p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsimi i imazhit, rikthimi i vendit\u00a0\u00a0n\u00eb hierarkin\u00eb e lart\u00eb t\u00eb fuqive bot\u00ebrore, ishte nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr interes q\u00eb e shtyu Kremlinin drejt goditjes s\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs dhe aneksimit t\u00eb Krimes\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Mesazhi q\u00eb ai d\u00ebshiron t`i jap\u00eb Per\u00ebndimit, n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet nd\u00ebrhyrjes n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb, \u00ebsht\u00eb ky: N\u00ebse nuk doni t\u00eb d\u00ebgjoni z\u00ebrin dhe mendimin ton\u00eb, n\u00ebse nuk doni t\u00eb respektoni interesat tona, ne do t`ju detyrojm\u00eb ta b\u00ebni k\u00ebt\u00eb. N\u00eb logjik\u00ebn e Putinit, tani Rusia \u00ebsht\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb aq e fort\u00eb, sa t`i l\u00ebr\u00eb pas fyerjet dhe posht\u00ebrimet q\u00eb, sipas tij, Per\u00ebndimi ia ka b\u00ebr\u00eb Rusis\u00eb, pas p\u00ebrfundimit t\u00eb Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Ftoht\u00eb dhe shp\u00ebrb\u00ebrjes s\u00eb BS.<\/p>\n

Ashtu si 100 vjet m\u00eb par\u00eb, edhe n\u00eb vitin 2014, Rusia nuk kursehet n\u00eb p\u00ebrdorimin e demagogjis\u00eb. P\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb nd\u00ebrhyrjes me forca ushtarake kund\u00ebr nj\u00eb vendi tjet\u00ebr sllav, si\u00e7 \u00ebsht\u00eb Ukraina, Moska nuk mund t\u00eb flas\u00eb m\u00eb n\u00eb em\u00ebr t\u00eb \u201csolidaritetit sllav\u201d, si n\u00eb rastin e Serbis\u00eb, por ka shpikur \u201cmbrojtjen\u201d e t\u00eb drejtave t\u00eb rus\u00ebve etnik\u00eb dhe t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb rusishtfol\u00ebse\u201d\u00a019<\/sup>, duke i dh\u00ebn\u00eb vetes t\u00eb drejt\u00ebn e nd\u00ebrhyrjes, jo vet\u00ebm n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb, por n\u00eb gjith\u00eb hap\u00ebsir\u00ebn ish sovjetike, kudo ku jetojn\u00eb pjes\u00ebtar\u00eb t\u00eb s\u00eb ashtuquajtur\u00ebs\u00a0\u00a0\u201cbot\u00eb ruse\u201d dhe sa her\u00eb q\u00eb ajo vet\u00eb e gjykon se t\u00eb drejtat e tyre po \u201cshkelen\u201d. Natyrisht, nuk jan\u00eb t\u00eb drejtat e rusishtfol\u00ebsve ato q\u00eb e shqet\u00ebsojn\u00eb Mosk\u00ebn, por interesat shtet\u00ebrore t\u00eb saj, si fuqi e madhe.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebrtej Rusis\u00eb, n\u00eb plan m\u00eb t\u00eb gj\u00ebr\u00eb global, nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr ekspert amerikan, Ambasadori\u00a0\u00a0Charles Freeman, gjen \u201cngjashm\u00ebri shqet\u00ebsuese\u201d midis sfidave t\u00eb nj\u00eb shekulli m\u00eb par\u00eb dhe atyre t\u00eb sotme. Ai thekson se edhe n\u00eb prag t\u00eb Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Par\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore procesi i globalizimit po zhvillohej me shpejt\u00ebsi, ekuilibri i forcave po ndryshonte, fryma nacionaliste po p\u00ebrhapej, tensioni shoq\u00ebror-ekonomik po rritej, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb teknologjit\u00eb ushtarake po p\u00ebrsoseshin,\u00a020<\/sup>\u00a0duke paralajm\u00ebruar ndryshimin e karakterit t\u00eb veprimeve luftarake.<\/p>\n

Sot k\u00ebto dukuri po shfaqen n\u00eb progresion gjeometrik. Gazeta \u201cDie Welt\u201d konstaton \u201cngjashm\u00ebri t\u00eb dukshme strukturore\u201d21<\/sup>\u00a0midis sistemit t\u00eb sot\u00ebm nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar dhe atij q\u00eb ekzistonte n\u00eb prag t\u00eb Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Par\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore. K\u00ebtu, n\u00eb radh\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb, ajo ka parasysh l\u00ebvizjet tektonike n\u00eb shp\u00ebrndarjen e fuqis\u00eb dhe shfaqjen e lojtar\u00ebve t\u00eb rinj q\u00eb aspirojn\u00eb t\u00eb sfidojn\u00eb rregullat e vendosura pas Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Ftoht\u00eb, midis t\u00eb cil\u00ebve, nd\u00ebr m\u00eb aktiv\u00ebt dhe m\u00eb agresiv\u00ebt, paraqitet Rusia.<\/p>\n

Pas zhvillimeve dramatike n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb, jan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb t\u00eb shumt\u00eb z\u00ebrat p\u00ebr fillimin e nj\u00eb \u201clufte t\u00eb ftoht\u00eb\u201d t\u00eb re\u00a0\u00a0midis Lindjes dhe Per\u00ebndimit. Sipas politolog\u00ebve rus\u00eb, Fjodor Llukjanov dhe Sergej Karaganov, \u201clufta e ftoht\u00eb\u201d, as q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb nd\u00ebrprer\u00eb ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb, sepse, sipas tyre, edhe pas viteve `90- t\u00eb t\u00eb shekullit t\u00eb kaluar, Per\u00ebndimi vazhdoi politik\u00ebn e frenimit, t\u00eb margjinalizimit dhe posht\u00ebrimit t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb.22<\/sup>Profesori i Universitetit t\u00eb Nju Jorkut,Stiven Kohen,\u00a0\u00a0jo vet\u00ebm q\u00eb e pranon se situata e tanishme n\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare\u00a0\u00a0i ka t\u00eb gjitha shenjat e \u201cluft\u00ebs s\u00eb ftoht\u00eb\u201d, por e krahason at\u00eb me momentet m\u00eb t\u00eb mprehta t\u00eb ballafaqimit midis Per\u00ebndimit dhe Lindjes, duke u shprehur se kriza aktuale \u00ebsht\u00eb me e rrezikshme se ajo e Karaibeve n\u00eb vitin 1962 .23<\/sup><\/p>\n

Nuk jan\u00eb t\u00eb pakt\u00eb z\u00ebrat, sipas t\u00eb cil\u00ebve, po shfaqen fantazmat e luft\u00ebs s\u00eb tret\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore\u00a024<\/sup>,\u00a0\u00a0e cila, sipas tyre, nuk mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb tjet\u00ebr ve\u00e7 luft\u00eb b\u00ebrthamore.<\/p>\n

Profesori i Universitetit Kolumbia, Robert Levgold, paralajm\u00ebron se acarimi i kriz\u00ebs s\u00eb siguris\u00eb n\u00eb qend\u00ebr t\u00eb Europ\u00ebs mund t\u00eb kthej\u00eb rrezikun e k\u00ebsaj lufte .25<\/sup><\/p>\n

Aq m\u00eb tep\u00ebr q\u00eb Vladimir Putini, m\u00eb se nj\u00eb her\u00eb, gjat\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti, i \u00ebsht\u00eb referuar arsenalit b\u00ebrthamor rus dhe nevoj\u00ebs s\u00eb modernizimit t\u00eb tij. N\u00eb doktrin\u00ebn ushtarake dhe at\u00eb t\u00eb siguris\u00eb t\u00eb Federat\u00ebs Ruse, q\u00eb n\u00eb vitin 1993, \u00ebsht\u00eb hequr dor\u00eb nga parimi \u201ci mosp\u00ebrdorimit i pari t\u00eb arm\u00ebs b\u00ebrthamore\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0Para pak koh\u00ebsh, ishte pik\u00ebrisht Moska ajo q\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnoi se vet\u00ebm Rusia \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje q\u00eb ta shnd\u00ebrroj\u00eb SHBA-n\u00eb n\u00eb pluhur radioaktiv .26<\/sup><\/p>\n

Se \u00e7far\u00eb do t\u00eb thot\u00eb luft\u00eb b\u00ebrthamore, k\u00ebt\u00eb e ka paralajm\u00ebruar me koh\u00eb Albert Ajnshtajni: pas luft\u00ebs s\u00eb tret\u00eb, e kat\u00ebrta do t\u00eb zhvillohet me gur\u00eb dhe me shkopinj .27<\/sup><\/p>\n

Nisur nga arsenalet e fuqishme b\u00ebrthamore q\u00eb zot\u00ebrojn\u00eb SHBA dhe Rusia armagedoni eventual atomik, me shum\u00eb gjas\u00eb, do t`i jepte fund jet\u00ebs n\u00eb planetin ton\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Sa jan\u00eb reale gjasat p\u00ebr luft\u00eb bot\u00ebrore, n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb ve\u00e7ant\u00eb, p\u00ebr nj\u00eb ballafaqim b\u00ebrthamor midis Rusis\u00eb dhe SHBA-s\u00eb?<\/p>\n

P\u00ebr t`i dh\u00ebn\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigje k\u00ebsaj pyetjeje, duhet nisur nga rrethanat aktuale, si dhe nga raporti i forcave midis aktor\u00ebve kryesor\u00eb t\u00eb sken\u00ebs politike nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare. Precedent\u00ebt historik\u00eb jan\u00eb t\u00eb pamjaftuesh\u00ebm p\u00ebr t\u00eb arritur n\u00eb p\u00ebrfundime t\u00eb argumentuara shkenc\u00ebrisht. Analogjit\u00eb me t\u00eb shkuar\u00ebn mund t\u00eb ofrojn\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb s\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00ebs, por asnj\u00eb prej tyre nuk pasqyron dot situat\u00ebn e tanishme, sidomos sa u p\u00ebrket prognozave katastrofike .28<\/sup>\u00a0Duke pranuar q\u00eb situata e sotme nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare ka \u201cngjashm\u00ebri t\u00eb dukshme strukturore\u201d me at\u00eb n\u00eb prag t\u00eb Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Par\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore, duhet v\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb dukje se ato jan\u00eb larg s\u00eb q\u00ebni identike. Mark Tuen ka shkruar se historia rimon\u00a029<\/sup>, duke kuptuar me k\u00ebt\u00eb q\u00eb ajo nuk p\u00ebrs\u00ebritet, as nuk mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrs\u00ebritet pik\u00eb p\u00ebr pik\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Dallimi themelor \u00ebsht\u00eb se me 1914, p\u00ebrball\u00eb nj\u00ebri-tjetrit ishin dy blloqe antagoniste, nga nj\u00ebra an\u00eb, Antanta (Britani, Franc\u00eb dhe Rusi) dhe, nga ana tjet\u00ebr, Blloku Q\u00ebndror, (Gjermani, Austro-Hungari).<\/p>\n

N\u00eb mars 2014, Rusia nd\u00ebrhyri e vetme n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb, pa patur ndonj\u00eb aleat pas vetes. Bile as Bjellorusia dhe Kazakistani, an\u00ebtar\u00eb t\u00eb Bashkimit Doganor Euraziatik, nuk i mb\u00ebshtet\u00ebn veprimet e Mosk\u00ebs n\u00eb Krime.<\/p>\n

Nj\u00eb dallim tjet\u00ebr, gjithashtu thelb\u00ebsor, ka t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb me raportin e forcave. Moska, v\u00ebrtet, ka arritur paritetin strategjik me Uashingtonin, q\u00eb n\u00eb mesin e shekullit t\u00eb 20-t\u00eb, por n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb element\u00ebt e tjer\u00eb t\u00eb fuqis\u00eb ekziston nj\u00eb asimetri e dukshme midis k\u00ebtyre dy vendeve. Mjafton t\u00eb p\u00ebrmendim q\u00eb ekonomia e SHBA-s\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb tet\u00eb her\u00eb m\u00eb e madhe se e Rusis\u00eb, buxheti ushtarak amerikan \u00ebsht\u00eb shtat\u00eb her\u00eb m\u00eb i lart\u00eb se ai rus\u00a030<\/sup>, pa folur p\u00ebr ep\u00ebrsit\u00eb e SHBA-s\u00eb n\u00eb teknologji, n\u00eb telekomunikacion, n\u00eb \u201cfuqin\u00eb e but\u00eb\u201d, etj.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb kontekst, v\u00ebshtir\u00eb t\u00eb thuhet q\u00eb Putini \u00ebsht\u00eb i gatsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr nj\u00eb ballafaqim me SHBA, me NATO-n dhe Per\u00ebndimin,\u00a0\u00a0n\u00eb p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsi. Deklaratat e tij k\u00ebrc\u00ebnuese duhen par\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb si mjet presioni ndaj Per\u00ebndimit, p\u00ebr t\u00eb zbutur sanksionet apo p\u00ebr ta l\u00ebn\u00eb t\u00eb qet\u00eb n\u00eb \u201ctajg\u00ebn\u201d e tij, sesa k\u00ebrc\u00ebnim real p\u00ebr p\u00ebrdorimin e arm\u00ebs b\u00ebrthamore. K\u00ebrc\u00ebnime t\u00eb tilla pati b\u00ebr\u00eb edhe paraardh\u00ebsi i tij, Boris Jelcin, n\u00eb vitin 1995, gjat\u00eb luft\u00ebs n\u00eb Bosnje-Hercegovin\u00eb, si dhe n\u00eb vitin 1999, gjat\u00eb luft\u00ebs n\u00eb Kosov\u00eb, si shprehje e pak\u00ebnaq\u00ebsis\u00eb s\u00eb tij ndaj nd\u00ebrhyrjes s\u00eb NATO-s kund\u00ebr forcave serbe .31<\/sup>\u00a0Ato mbeten pjes\u00eb e retorik\u00ebs s\u00eb nxeht\u00eb, m\u00eb shum\u00eb simbol i dob\u00ebsis\u00eb, sesa i fuqis\u00eb ruse. Si\u00e7 do t\u00eb mbeten t\u00eb tilla, me siguri, edhe k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimet e Putinit. Sepse \u00e7do udh\u00ebheq\u00ebs shteti q\u00eb ka pultin e komandimit t\u00eb arm\u00ebs b\u00ebrthamore e di q\u00eb shtypja e tij \u00e7on n\u00eb shkat\u00ebrrimin e nd\u00ebrsjell\u00eb, t\u00eb sigurt\u00eb. \u00cbsht\u00eb vet\u00eb arma b\u00ebrthamore q\u00eb sh\u00ebrben si sigures\u00eb p\u00ebr mosp\u00ebrdorimin e saj dhe jo arsyeja e sh\u00ebndosh\u00eb e Putinit dhe as triumfi i drejt\u00ebsis\u00eb nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare. Ka shum\u00eb t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb q\u00eb, po t\u00eb mos ishte arma b\u00ebrthamore, lufta bot\u00ebrore do t\u00eb kishte filluar me koh\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Megjithat\u00eb, si\u00e7 konstaton me t\u00eb drejt\u00eb studiuesi bullgar, Ivan Krastev, p\u00ebrkujtimi i 100 vjetorit t\u00eb fillimit t\u00eb Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Par\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore, e b\u00ebri t\u00eb pashmangshme referimin ndaj analogjis\u00eb me t\u00eb\u00a032<\/sup>, gj\u00eb q\u00eb nuk kaloi pa ndikim n\u00eb vendimmarrjen dhe reagimin e Brukselit dhe t\u00eb Uashingtonit. Sipas k\u00ebtij koncepti, q\u00eb njihet edhe si \u201csindromi i Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Par\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore\u201d, meqen\u00ebse konflikti para 100 vjet\u00ebsh erdhi si pasoj\u00eb e keqkuptimit dhe munges\u00ebs s\u00eb besimit midis fuqive t\u00eb m\u00ebdha, pra, d\u00ebshtimit t\u00eb diplomacis\u00eb, at\u00ebhere, m\u00ebsimi q\u00eb duhet nxjerr\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb ky: kujdes nga reagimi i tepruar, jepi shans diplomacis\u00eb\u00a033\u00a0<\/sup>; ndaj veprimeve t\u00eb Mosk\u00ebs t\u00eb veprojm\u00eb me kujdes, t\u00eb mos e provokojm\u00eb at\u00eb, p\u00ebrndryshe ajo do t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb ndonj\u00eb t\u00eb keqe edhe m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe. Ky koncept gjeti vend n\u00eb reagimet e para t\u00eb Per\u00ebndimit ndaj aneksimit t\u00eb Krimes\u00eb, t\u00eb cilat ishin t\u00eb vak\u00ebta dhe t\u00eb mang\u00ebta\u00a034<\/sup>, duke u kufizuar me disa sanksione ndaj nj\u00eb numri n\u00ebpun\u00ebsish t\u00eb administrat\u00ebs s\u00eb Putinit.<\/p>\n

Koncepti tjet\u00ebr, q\u00eb filloi t\u00eb shfaqet me thellimin e kriz\u00ebs,\u00a0\u00a0ishte i kund\u00ebrt me at\u00eb t\u00eb sindromit t\u00eb Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Par\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore: ndaj Rusis\u00eb duhet q\u00ebndruar fort\u00a035<\/sup>, ajo duhet frenuar n\u00eb agresivitetin e saj dhe ky frenim duhet t\u00eb jet\u00eb sistemor, n\u00eb t\u00eb kund\u00ebrt, l\u00ebshimet dhe pasiviteti e trim\u00ebrojn\u00eb regjimin e Putinit dhe ai mund t\u00eb nd\u00ebrmarr\u00eb\u00a0\u00a0aventura t\u00eb tjera, me pasoja edhe m\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnda. Pra, jo reagimi, por mosreagimi do t\u00eb ishte i rreziksh\u00ebm. K\u00ebt\u00eb kishte d\u00ebshmuar p\u00ebrvoja e Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Dyt\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore, kur politika e pajtimit me Hitlerin, ve\u00e7 i kishte shtuar orekset e tij dhe historia e saj, tashm\u00eb, dihet. K\u00ebt\u00eb d\u00ebshmoi edhe p\u00ebrvoja e Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Ftoht\u00eb, kur politika amerikane e frenimit dhe sanksioneve ndaj BS dha frytet e veta.<\/p>\n

K\u00ebt\u00eb d\u00ebshmoi edhe rasti i Kosov\u00ebs, kur q\u00ebndrimi i fort\u00eb i Per\u00ebndimit ndaj Milloshevi\u00e7it u konkretizua me nd\u00ebrhyrjen e NATO-s, n\u00eb pranver\u00ebn e vitit 1999, duke parandaluar spastrimin etnik t\u00eb shqiptar\u00ebve nga dhuna e strukturuar ushtarake dhe policore serbe.<\/p>\n

Koncepti i q\u00ebndrimit t\u00eb fort\u00eb gjeti konkretizimin e vet me sanksionet e nivelit t\u00eb tret\u00eb t\u00eb BE-s\u00eb dhe vendimet e Samitit t\u00eb NATO-s n\u00eb Uells, t\u00eb cilat, pritet q\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen e af\u00ebrt, t\u00eb japin efektet e duhura.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebrkujtimi i 100 vjetorit t\u00eb fillimit t\u00eb Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Par\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore, si dhe zhvillimet e sotme nd\u00ebrkombtare, sidomos lufta e Rusis\u00eb kund\u00ebr Ukrain\u00ebs, pra historia dhe e sotmja duhet t\u00eb sh\u00ebrbejn\u00eb si momente reflektimi p\u00ebr shqiptar\u00ebt. Popujt dhe kombet serioz\u00eb nxjerrin m\u00ebsime t\u00eb vyera nga p\u00ebrvoja historike dhe ajo aktuale. Ashtu si gjat\u00eb historis\u00eb, politika zyrtare e shtetit rus vazhdon t\u00eb jet\u00eb n\u00eb kund\u00ebrshtim me interesat tona komb\u00ebtare shtet\u00ebrore. Moska vazhdon t\u00eb mbetet kund\u00ebrshtari m\u00eb i eg\u00ebr i pavar\u00ebsis\u00eb s\u00eb Kosov\u00ebs. Si instrument t\u00eb loj\u00ebrave t\u00eb saj gjeopolitike n\u00eb rajonin e Ballkanit, ajo ka zgjedhur Beogradin dhe serb\u00ebt, natyrisht, n\u00eb funksion t\u00eb interesave t\u00eb veta dhe jo \u201cv\u00ebllez\u00ebrve sllav\u00eb\u201d.<\/p>\n

Nga ky k\u00ebndv\u00ebshtrim, ngjarjet n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb, edhe nj\u00eb her\u00eb tjet\u00ebr, rikonfirmojn\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00ebn e shpallur, q\u00eb n\u00eb koh\u00ebn e Rilindjes dhe t\u00eb p\u00ebrs\u00ebritur si deviz\u00eb kryesore n\u00eb l\u00ebvizjet demokratike, n\u00eb kap\u00ebrcyell t\u00eb viteve `80- `90-t\u00eb t\u00eb shekullit t\u00eb 20-t\u00eb, se p\u00ebr Shqip\u00ebrin\u00eb dhe Kosov\u00ebn, ashtu si p\u00ebr gjith\u00eb kombin shqiptar, nuk ka alternativ\u00eb tjet\u00ebr, ve\u00e7 forcimit t\u00eb lidhjeve t\u00eb gjithanshme me Per\u00ebndimin dhe, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht, me aleatin ton\u00eb strategjik-SHBA, si dhe vazhdimi i proceseve integruese n\u00eb strukturat euro-atlantike.<\/p>\n

_________________<\/p>\n

1.Pavel\u00a0\u00a0Sheremet, \u201cPeredel Ukrainy\u201d, Ukrainskaya Pravda, 14.04.2014<\/p>\n

2. Robert Kagan, \u201cSuperpowers don`t\u00a0\u00a0get to retire\u201d,\u00a0www.newrepublic.com<\/a>,\u00a0\u00a0\u00a026.05.2014<\/p>\n

3.Gal Luft, \u201cTsar Vladimir the first\u201d,\u00a0www.foreignpolicy.com<\/a>, 05.08.2014<\/p>\n

4.Viktor Cernomyrdin, \u201cVyzov\u201d, M., 2003, s. 193-194;<\/p>\n

\u201cZa balkanskimi frontami Pervoy\u00a0\u00a0Mirovoy Voyni \u201c, M., 2002, predisllovye, s.3<\/p>\n

5.Nikolay Rizhkov, Vyacheslav Tetyokin, \u201cYugoslavskaya Golgofa\u201d, M., 2002,\u00a0\u00a0s. 22-35;<\/p>\n

E. Yu. Guskova, \u201cIstoriya Yugoslavskogo krizisa\u201d (1990-2000), M., 2001, s. 508;<\/p>\n

A. Bezhicky, \u201cVoyna, kotoraya vsegda s toboy\u201d, Ogonyok, nr. 30, iyul`, 1995<\/p>\n

6.Henri Kisinger, \u201cDiplomacia\u201d, Tiranw 1999, f. 194;<\/p>\n

Patrick. J. Buchanan, \u201cWho and what is Vladimir Putin?\u201d, The American Conservative, 18.03.2014;<\/p>\n

Margaret Macmillan, \u201cSherri i madh i Serbis\u00eb s\u00eb vog\u00ebl\u201d, Koha Ditore, 18.01.2014<\/p>\n

7.Henri Kisinger, op. cit<\/p>\n

8.Henri Kisinger, op.cit, f. 181;<\/p>\n

N. Rich, \u201cDiplomacia e fuqive t\u00eb m\u00ebdha 1814-1914\u201d, Tiran\u00eb, 2006, f. 260-261<\/p>\n

9.Yu. Pisaryev, \u201cTayny Pervoy Mirovoy Voyny. Rossiya i Serbiya v 1914-1915 gg.\u201d, M., 1990, s. 109-110<\/p>\n

10.D.C.B. Lieven, \u201cRussia and the origins of the First World War\u201d, New York, St. Martin`s Press, 1983, p. 46<\/p>\n

11.D.C.B. Lieven, Op.cit, p. 69<\/p>\n

12.George F. Kenan, \u201cThe fatefull alliance: France, Russia and the coming of the First World War\u201d, New York, Pantheon, 1984, Apendix II, p. 264<\/p>\n

13.\u201cIstoriya vneshney politiki Rossii\u201d, M., 1997<\/p>\n

14.Moris Paleologu, (1859-1944), diplomat i shquar francez, nga viti 1914 deri n\u00eb vitin 1917 ka qen\u00eb\u00a0\u00a0ambassador i Republik\u00ebs s\u00eb Franc\u00ebs n\u00eb Perandorin\u00eb Ruse<\/p>\n

15.Cari Nikollaj II (1868-1918), ka qen\u00eb perandori i fundit rus. Gjat\u00eb revolucionit t\u00eb shkurtit t\u00eb vitit 1917, abdikoi nga froni. Me urdh\u00ebr t\u00eb autoriteteve sovjetike, n\u00eb vitin 1918 u pushkatua n\u00eb qytetin Ekaterinburg, me t\u00eb gjith\u00eb an\u00ebtar\u00ebt e familjes s\u00eb tij.<\/p>\n

16. Moris Paleologu, \u201cTsarkaya Rossiya vo vremya mirovoy voyny\u201d, M., 1991<\/p>\n

17.Viktor Cernomyrdin, op cit<\/p>\n

18.Gal Luft, op.cit<\/p>\n

19. Vladimir Putin, \u201cObrascheniye Prezidenta Roossiskoy Federacii\u201d,\u00a0www.kremlin.ru<\/a>, 18.03.2014<\/p>\n

20.Charles W. Freeman, \u201cKogda bessil`na diplomatiya\u201d,\u00a0www.globalaffairs.ru<\/a>, 03.09.2014<\/p>\n

21.Dominik Geppert, Sonke Neitzel, Cora\u00a0\u00a0Stephan, Thomas Weber, \u201cPochemu vinovata ne tol`ko Germaniya\u201d, Die Welt,\u00a0www.inosmi.ru<\/a>, 12.01.2014<\/p>\n

22.Sergey Karaganov, \u201cEvropa: Okonchit` holodnuyu voynu\u201d,\u00a0www.globalaffairs.ru<\/a>, 08.04.2014;<\/p>\n

Sergey Karaganov, \u201cEvropa i Rossiya: Ne dopuskat` novoy holodnoy voyny\u201d,\u00a0www.globalaffairs.ru<\/a>, 27.04.2014;<\/p>\n

Fyodor Lukyanov, \u201cMechta o holodnoy voynye\u201d,\u00a0www.globalaffairs.ru<\/a>, 28.04.2014;<\/p>\n

Georgiy Bovt, \u201cHotyeli russkiye voyny?\u201d,\u00a0www.globalaffairs.ru<\/a>, 02.03.2014<\/p>\n

23. Stephen F. Cohen, \u201cThe new cold war and the necessity of patriotic heresy\u201d,\u00a0www.thenation.com<\/a>, 12.08.2014<\/p>\n

Dominik Geppert, Sonke Neitzel, Cora\u00a0\u00a0Stephan, Thomas Weber, \u201cPochemu vinovata ne tol`ko Germaniya\u201d, Die Welt,\u00a0www.inosmi.ru<\/a>, 12.01.2014<\/p>\n

Sergey Karaganov, \u201cEvropa: Okonchit` holodnuyu voynu\u201d,\u00a0www.globalaffairs.ru<\/a>, 08.04.2014;<\/p>\n

Sergey Karaganov, \u201cEvropa i Rossiya: Ne dopuskat` novoy holodnoy voyny\u201d,\u00a0www.globalaffairs.ru<\/a>, 27.04.2014;<\/p>\n

Fyodor Lukyanov, \u201cMechta o holodnoy voynye\u201d,\u00a0www.globalaffairs.ru<\/a>, 28.04.2014;<\/p>\n

Georgiy Bovt, \u201cHotyeli russkiye voyny?\u201d,\u00a0www.globalaffairs.ru<\/a>, 02.03.2014<\/p>\n

Stephen F. Cohen, \u201cThe new cold war and the necessity of patriotic heresy\u201d,\u00a0www.thenation.com<\/a>, 12.08.2014<\/p>\n

24. Jacques\u00a0\u00a0Attali, \u201cGeopolitique de l`humiliation\u201d,\u00a0www.slate.fr<\/a>, 16.09.2014;<\/p>\n

Gareth Evans, \u201cFive reasons why the sky is not falling\u201d,\u00a0www.project-syndicate.org<\/a>, 27.05.2014;<\/p>\n

Han Siudun, \u201cPora gotovit`sya\u00a0\u00a0k tret`yey mirovoy\u201d, Huancin Zhibao,\u00a0www.inosmir.ru<\/a>, 16.09.2014<\/p>\n

25..Robert Legvold, \u201cManaging the new cold war\u201d,\u00a0www.foreignaffairs.com<\/a>,\u00a0\u00a0\u00a008.08.2014<\/p>\n

26.Fyodor Lukyanov, op cit<\/p>\n

27.Andrey Bystritskiy, \u201cSMI v koren` \u201d,\u00a0www.globalaffairs.ru<\/a>, 27.01.2014<\/p>\n

28.Dominique Moisi, \u201cVladimir Poutine donne un nouvel elan a l`axe Paris-Berlin\u201d, Les Echos, FR, 24.03.2014<\/p>\n

29.Graham Allison, \u201cCould the Ukraine crisis spark world war?\u201d, The national interest, 07.05.2014<\/p>\n

30.Robert Legvold, op cit<\/p>\n

31.John Mearsheimer, \u201cWhy the Ukraine\u00a0\u00a0crisis is the west`s fault?\u201d,\u00a0www.foreignaffairs.com<\/a>, (nr. 5, 2014), dt.31.08.2014<\/p>\n

32.Ivan Krastev, \u201c1914 protiv 1938: kak yubileynyie daty delayut istoriyu\u201d,\u00a0www.globalaffairs.ru<\/a>, 19.07.2014<\/p>\n

33. Ivan Krastev, idem.<\/p>\n

34.Robert Kagan, op cit<\/p>\n

35. David J. Kramer, \u201cAction, not words needed for Ukraine\u201d, The Washington Post, 22.04.2014; David Francis, \u201cHow NATO could confront the Putin doctrine\u201d,www.foringpolicy.com<\/a>, 26.08.2014<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

*Dr. Islam Lauka, Drejtor i Institutit Shqiptar t\u00eb Studimeve Politike<\/p>\n

**Kumtes\u00eb e mbajtur para disa muajsh n\u00eb Akademin\u00eb e Shkencave dhe Arteve t\u00eb Kosov\u00ebs<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

*Dr. Islam Lauka\u00a0 Aneksimi i Krimes\u00eb nga Rusia, n\u00eb mars t\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti dhe mb\u00ebshtetja prej saj e forcave separatiste ukrainase n\u00eb Donjeck dhe Llugansk, b\u00ebri q\u00eb shum\u00eb historian\u00eb, analist\u00eb, studiues e politolog\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrs\u00ebrisin pyetjen e shtruar para gjasht\u00eb vjet\u00ebsh,<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4958,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4957","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politike"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/revistakuvendi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4957","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/revistakuvendi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/revistakuvendi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/revistakuvendi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/revistakuvendi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4957"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/revistakuvendi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4957\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4959,"href":"https:\/\/revistakuvendi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4957\/revisions\/4959"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/revistakuvendi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/4958"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/revistakuvendi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4957"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/revistakuvendi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4957"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/revistakuvendi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4957"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}